The T-Report: U.S. Rates – 3% Here We Come; But Where Do We Go From There?
Main, Rates, and Stocks This morning has European stocks up across the board by about 1/3%. U.S. stock are up a tiny bit. Sovereign debt is selling off globally with German and France leading the way...
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The T-Report: 3% and Higher on the 10 Year and the Front End Risks
Treasuries Like to Overshoot Round Numbers I am not sure why it seems to be the case, but the Treasury market seems to have followed a consistent pattern as the 10 year broke 2%, 2.25%, 2.5%, and...
View ArticleTFMkts Fixed Income ETF Overview & Outlook: The What a Weak Edition
When will Bad Morning replace Good Morning as a Greeting? We are in the midst of one of those “bad is good” rallies. The jobs data was weak by any measure. The establishment survey came in at only...
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The T-Report: Fed Fund Rate Projections
Let’s go back to some Fed “projection” analysis we did on August 19th Tomorrow we will get some new Fed projections. Hilsenrath decided to write about them, so suddenly people care. Below is the work...
View ArticleThe T-Report: Fed Fund Rate Projections – Part 2
Some Clarification Earlier today I tried to explain what the Fed member’s projections were for rates. Here it is in chart format (you can also find it on the Fed’s website in a different format)....
View ArticleThe T-Report: It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad World (and one that is slowing down)
It’s a Mad Mad Mad World Yesterday we tried to break from the insanity that is Washington and discuss why we like bank credit spreads here over the longer term. Today we are back to looking at D.C....
View ArticleThe T-Report: Out Damned Spot!
Out, damned spot! Out, I say! It is a shame that only Fisher really seems concerned that the Fed might be blowing another bubble. Even Lady Macbeth felt guilty about what she had done, but our Fed...
View ArticleThe T-Report: Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads
Yet Another Central Bank Induced Rally The ECB cut rates today. There was an immediate positive reaction. In some markets, like the 10 year treasury future, it almost looked as though the reaction was...
View ArticleThe T-Report: AAA CLO Spreads
What do AAA CLO Spreads Tell Us? So we just finished a week of rallies that have brought stocks back to within 1.5% of their high for S&P and brought the Nasdaq back into positive territory on the...
View ArticleTFMA Takes a Look at Barclay’s LIBOR From June ’05 until August ’07
Barclay’s U.K. Libor Charges Some traders who were at Barclay’s at the time have been charged in connection with LIBOR. I do not know the size of their positions on each and every day, but we can get a...
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